Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
'Customers flocked to purchase gold in large numbers during the event.'
The decline in inflation was broad-based across major commodity groups except housing and fuel and light.
Could the MPCE survey results be used as a basis of reconstructing the Consumer Price Index with new weights, asks Madan Sabnavis.
A monsoon deficit is likely to affect the agriculture output, which could have an impact on the food inflation
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
This development can strengthen the case for interest rate cut by the RBI.
The survey showed firms passed on a greater cost burden to consumers. Prices charged rose at their fastest pace since October.
Across the board, demand would appear to be slacker than it should be if we are headed for a healthy recovery.
In the current fiscal so far, retail inflation stabilised around 5 per cent, while wholesale price-based inflation averaged around 2.9 per cent during April-December.
'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'
Prices of all metals - from steel to copper, aluminium, zinc and lead - have shot up by about 5-11 per cent in the past month. Commodity inflation is raising its head, forcing companies to consider price hikes.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the country's economic growth remains a priority for the government, as inflation has come down to a manageable level. Job creation and equitable distribution of wealth remain the other focus areas, she said at India Ideas Summit. "Some of course are red-lettered (priorities), some may not be. Red-lettered ones would of course be jobs, equitable wealth distribution and making sure India is moving on the path of growth.
Lower crude oil prices would impact India's inflation, CAD.
India is due to post industrial output later in the day, with analysts expecting a return to modest growth, and is due to post wholesale and consumer prices data next week amid expectations vegetable prices have eased.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
Costlier onion and other vegetables pushed up inflation for the third month in a row to 6.1 per cent in August, making it difficult for the RBI to cut rate in the monetary policy review due later this week.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
The US Fed's rate cycle is set to turn later this year, but India is in a much better position than it was in 2013.
After falling 10 per cent against the greenback in 2022, the rupee staged a comeback in 2023 as it appreciated, albeit marginally, on the back of strong portfolio inflows, in addition to timely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian unit appreciated by 0.16 percent in six months until June 28. The rupee stood in third place in terms of appreciation against the US dollar among the 12 Asian currencies and in 12th place of the 23 emerging-market currencies.
The adverse impact on the margins of auto, consumer staples and consumer durables sectors will be counterbalanced by an earnings uptick in the metals, cement and oil & gas sectors.
WPI inflation even breached psychological level of 0% in Nov.
Notwithstanding the inflation pinch, analysts believe the Indian retail sector is on the 'cusp of accelerated earnings growth' as consumer sentiment and discretionary purchases bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic. "The shift in consumer preference from the unorganised sector to the organised, coupled with uptick in domestic demand as people resume work from office, will cheer the Indian retail sector," says Nishit Master, portfolio manager, Axis Securities. Shopping malls are witnessing increased footfall in lower tier towns and standalone stores as consumption picks up and mobility improves.
Mixed earnings and not so encouraging macroeconomic data dented sentiment, Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said. In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent, while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. In the broader market, BSE Midcap declined 0.73 per cent while smallcap dropped 0.45 per cent.
The internals of the food inflation are worrying, given a broad-based uptick across categories that tend to be sticky, such as proteins, and a narrower-than-expected reduction in inflation for vegetables.
In the first quarter (Q1) of the ongoing financial year ending June 30, Westlife Foodworld, which operates McDonald's outlets in the South and West, reported an 88 per cent drop in net profit. While net sales remained flat, its same-store sales growth (SSSG) fell by 6.7 per cent, impacted by "subdued in-store business, although the off-premise segment saw positive same-store sales", the company said.
The 30-share Sensex ended up 165 points at 29,044 and the 50-share Nifty gained 54 points to close at 8,834.
The previous bout of Fed withdrawal fears had threatened to spark a crisis of confidence in India -- sending the rupee to a record low of 68.85 in late August and leading to steep falls in bonds and stocks.
The rates of price rise in many services used by the common man, including hospital and nursing, cook, domestic help and bus (fare), among others, have also touched double digits during the last four years, putting a burden on disposable income.
Manufacturing activities in India touched a three-month high in March boosted by faster expansions in new orders and output amid demand resilience and easing of cost pressures, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 55.3 in February to 56.4 in March, signalling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in 2023 so far. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 21st straight month.
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The Indian rupee touched record low of 65.52/dollar on Thursday and is down 16 per cent so far this year despite efforts by policymakers to prop it up.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained its forecast of 9 per cent contraction in the Indian economy for the current fiscal, saying even though there are now upside risks to growth but it will wait for more signs that COVID infections have stabilised or fallen. S&P, in its report on Asia Pacific, projected the Indian economy to grow at 10 per cent in the next fiscal.
The Reserve Bank said it will launch inflation-indexed national savings securities for retail investors by mid-December.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
Clouding the inflation outlook is the recommendation of the 7th pay panel for an average 24 per cent pay hike for millions of its employees, which would lift demand-driven price pressures.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Sensex, Nifty end lower on global concerns.
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